Holiday shopping in the U SA and Canada is showing early shifts in spending patterns that promise a transformative season for retailers, one defined by surging e-commerce, inflation-driven behaviors, and the outsized influence of social media, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) 2025 holiday forecast.
While inflation remains a key contributor to headline retail growth, consumers’ changing preferences and retailers’ evolving strategies are shaping a much more nuanced holiday landscape. E-Commerce
Surge Outpaces In-Store Growth E-commerce is again set to outdistance traditional brick-and-mortar shopping this season. The MEI projects online holiday sales in the U.S . to grow 7.9% year over year, compared to just 2.3% for physical retail stores.
Similar trends are expected north of the border, with projected online retail growth in Canada at 5.3% versus 2.5% in-store.
While inflation is a significant driver of these increases, potentially more so than actual sales volume, shoppers are seeking digital convenience, choice, and value, amplifying the ongoing shift to online-first holiday shopping. Total Retail Expansion and the Impact of Tariffs Across all channels, total U.S.
retail sales (excluding autos) are expected to rise 3.6% from November 1 to December 24, 2025 . Canadian retail sales are on track for 2.8% year-over-year growth…
