Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast predicts another solid, if slightly slower, season for U.S. retailers in 2025 , with total holiday sales projected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4% to an estimated $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion from November through January .
Although this expansion falls below last year’s 4.2% growth rate, e-commerce is forecast to be a key driver, with online sales up between 7% and 9% , potentially reaching $310.7 billion for the season. Slower but Steady Growth Amid Economic
Uncertainty Deloitte credits the outlook to continued increases in disposable personal income (DPI), which is expected to grow by 3.1% to 5.4% during the 2025 holiday season. This income stability, analysts say, can help offset concerns about labor market weakness, high consumer debt, and stubborn inflation.
“We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season,” explains Akrur Barua , economist, Deloitte Insights. “Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales.
Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending”.
While inflation continues to weigh on real sales volume, it also has a positive effect on sales measured in dollars, raising the dollar value of holiday purchases even as unit growth may lag…
