On October 6, 2025 , Adobe released its annual U.S. holiday online shopping forecast—and the numbers are headline-making: $253.4 billion in online sales is expected between November 1 and December 31, 2025 , up 5.3% YoY from last year and setting an all-time e-commerce record.
Cyber Week and Spending Surges Cyber Week 2025 will be a pivotal driver, with $ 43.7 billion (a 6.3% YoY jump) projected over the five-day period , making up 17.2% of overall seasonal spend. Cyber Monday is forecast to reach $14.2 billion
(up 6.3% ), maintaining its status as the biggest day for online shopping, while Black Friday shows even stronger growth with $11.7 billion (up 8.3% ). Thanksgiving Day will see consumers spending $6.4 billion online, a 4.9% YoY increase.
Adobe notes that consumer deal-seeking is driving major spending shifts—with early shopping and longer windows for high discounts. Mobile Dominance & Buy Now Pay Later Boom For the first time, mobile devices are set to drive a majority, 56.1% ($142.7 billion) , of the online holiday spend, up 8.5% YoY .
This rapid shift highlights the maturation of m-commerce: in 2020 , mobile comprised just 40% of holiday spend. The Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) model is now mainstream.
Adobe predicts $20.2 billion (up 11% YoY ) in BNPL-powered purchases, almost all ( 79% ) through mobile, as budget-conscious shoppers opt for payment flexibility this festive season…
