Visa expects U.S. holiday spending to rise again in 2025 , but says inflation rather than true volume growth will drive much of that increase. In its latest Visa Business and Economic Insights Holiday Spending Outlook , the company forecasts solid top‑line gains even as real, inflation‑adjusted spending looks more subdued.
Headline growth vs real spending For the 2025 holiday period from November 1 to December 31 , Visa is calling for total U.S. retail sales (excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants)
to grow about 4.6% year over year . After adjusting for higher prices, real spending—used as a proxy for foot traffic and unit volume, is expected to rise by roughly 2.2% , down from about 2.5% last season. Inflation on holiday‑related goods is catching up with the broader CPI .
Recreational goods alone, which account for around 30% of Visa’s holiday CPI basket, saw prices rise about 3.1% year over year in September , pushing dollar sales higher even when shoppers are not buying significantly more items.
Households plan higher gift budgets Despite economic uncertainty, consumers surveyed by Visa in October 2025 say they plan to spend an average of $736 on holiday gifts , up roughly 10% from about $669 reported in 2024 . That increase reflects both resilience and the reality of higher prices across many gifting categories.
The strongest growth is coming from older shoppers. While Gen Z , Millennials and Gen X expect to lift holiday spend by around 5% to 7% , baby boomers are planning a jump of about 21% , to an average of roughly $855…
